Look for late United goals against Arsenal

If the deciding game against Liverpool is any indicator then Arsenal are certainly capable of scoring goals, especially when Theo Walcott is running.  Arsenal have looked tired in recent weeks and only the injection of energy of the young English forward gives them any momentum after the hour mark.  I would expect both teams to score, with Walcott involved in any late Arsenal goals.  But I would also expect United to dominate after the hour mark and get a late goal or two.

Six weeks ago this looked like a title decider but now it could well be a title eliminator if Arsenal don't win at Old Trafford. United's lead at the top is narrow, but a win here would eliminate many of the doubts, as the run-in would then consist of Chelsea and several mid-table teams (Blackburn, West Ham and Wigan) and United could win the title without recourse to getting anything at Chelsea. Arsenal simply have to win or they are simply too far back, with games running out they have to win and hope United slip up another two times and also that Chelsea stutter.

Will Arsenal start strong, like they did against Liverpool, and hope to hang on?

Sunday, 13 April 2008; Barclays Premier League

Manchester United (1) vs Arsenal (3), KO 16:00

Predictions
The panel is going with a MANCHESTER UNITED WIN.

Mark Carlton: Draw
Paul Grech: Home
Antony Melvin: Home
Stephen Orford: Home

Spread Betting
I'm looking for value from Walcott or late United goals.

Man Utd Team Goal Minutes sell 76, buy 81 
If United get a goal after the 81st minute, then a buy on this market automatically becomes profitable and any other goals increase the profit.  Two late goals and this market is very lucrative.

Example: 0.5pt buy Man Utd goal minutes at 81
No goals: you lose 40.5pts
Man Utd scores after 45 minutes: You win -18pts
Man Utd scores after 30 and 60 minutes: You win 4.5pts
Man Utd scores after 80 and 85 minutes: You win 44pts
Man Utd scores after 30, 60 and 90 minutes: You win 49.5pts
and so on


Walcott Goal Minutes sell 6, buy 9

Walcott is great value for a goal as all the markets are concentrating on a goal from the three United strikers and Adebayor.

Example: 5pt buy Walcott goal minutes at 9
No goals: you lose 45pts
Walcott scores after 45 minutes: You win 180pts
Walcott scores after 30 and 60 minutes: You win 405pts
Walcott scores after 30, 60 and 90 minutes: You win 855pts
and so on

Arsenal Team Goals sell 0.80, buy 1 
Arsenal usually score in the big games and the break even is set to one goal; anything else would be profit on a buy.

Example: 40pts buy Arsenal team goals at 1
No goals: You lose 40pts
1 goal: Break even
2 goals: You win 40pts
3 goals: You win 80pts
4 goals: You win 120pts
5 goals: You win 160pts
6 goals: You win 200pts
and so on
 

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I would also expect United to dominate after the hour mark and get a late goal or two"


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