11 PREMIERSHIP: United, falling a

With the crucial Germany match just hours away, Antony Melvin looks into his crystal ball and picks a team.

In the Forties and Fifties it was the strikers that won championships, the team with the best wingers and centre forwards won the trophies. In the seventies and eighties it was the strongest defence that held sway. But modern tournaments are won by holding the middle, so with England facing a crucial game in Germany at the weekend who should the fab four or five be?

In essence the choice should come down to a simple question of 'who are the best four English qualified midfielders'. If only life were as simple as Championship Manager (well cm2 anyway, it started getting very difficult after that). To pick a four/five purely on ability would probably result in an overly attacking midfield, simply because England does not have an outstanding defensive midfielder. To my mind the best midfield combination would be :

A solid holding player, good engine, experienced, ability to break up or hold up quick opposition breaks, sitting in front of the back four.

A playmaker with the ability to pass long or short with the license to break into the box, or move out wide.

A pacy attacking player, who has the energy to go box-to-box for ninety minutes and link defence, midfield and attack.

A ball winner, simple short passes operating predominantly around the centre circle.

Finally, because we're away and in Germany I think a 4-1-3-1-1 formation is a winner and so we need a fifth...

A goalscorer operating from deep, good passer and able to link with the main striker.

Totally ignoring fitness doubts, this is the squarefootball midfield.

Experienced holding players, once a thriving cottage industry in England now something of a lost art. The candidates are basically Ince, Batty, Butt and Carrick. Past England managers have tried playing defenders or man-markers in this role, Keegan - Southgate, Robson - Fenwick, Taylor - my cousin Vinny (probably). It should be Carrick, great future and probably the best of the three from last years West Ham. Butt simply isn't good enough and Ince has retired. But Batty is a safer option and should be there as a one-off.

Playmakers. Not exactly an English speciality. The choice is between Beckham and ... err, Joe Cole, Steve McManaman? So Beckham it is then.

Your 'complete midfielder', England have not had a box-to-box player since Bryan Robson, David Platt was close but he was much more of an attacking option, Ince was sporadically good - but not consistent. The choice lies between Dyer, Lampard, Barmby, Hargreaves, Gerrard and Cole. Cole is too inexperienced, ditto Lampard and Hargreaves, Barmby is not even a regular at club level these days, but would probably be third choice. Dyer is a potential star but right now Gerrard is the most complete English midfielder.

Ball winner needed, another area of weakness, and for the lack of alternatives this one must go to a tyro: Carrick or Hargreaves. Hargreaves knows the German league and gets the nod on that basis alone.

Goalscorer, link player and partial playmaker. Paul Scholes. The comparisons to Cruyff aren't fair, but Scholes scores goals and makes an additional conventional midfielder at the same time as having a great instinct in the box.

A five for Germany; Batty, Beckham, Gerrard, Hargreaves and Scholes.

The full squarefootball.net XI Martyn, Neville G, Campbell, Ferdinand, Cole, Batty, Beckham, Gerrard, Hargreaves, Scholes and Owen.With the shock transfer of Jaap Stam is this the beginning of the end of the red juggernaught, that so many people have hoped for so long? Or is there another more unlikely scenario being played out here? Is Ferguson gearing himself up to delay his retirement, and is no longer prepared to play a short-term game?

Alex Ferguson has long chopped and changed teams, established stars have been axed and replaced - often with little warning, and the bandwagon has kept on rolling. The reason that Ferguson is planning to retire later is because he has systematically rebuilt his European Cup winning team, apparently for his successors benefit. Buying Barthez, Silvestre, Veron and van Nistelrooy added to the emergence of Brown and Chadwick suggests that this United team has a future. A future with Fergie at the helm.

Ferguson started building his fourth team the moment the European cup was won in 1999, only three of the starting 11 are still automatic choices. Yes just three, and its only 2 years ago. Here was the line-up:

Schmeichel: Gone in 60 seconds.
Neville G: Still a regular.
Stam: Novelist turned Roman.
Johnsen: Usually injured squad player.
Irwin: Final year for the dependable squad player.
Beckham: Was traitorous idiot, now England captain - times change.
Butt: Fifth choice in central midfield.
Giggs: Regular playing the best football of his life.
Blomqvist: Injury plagued and released.
Cole: No longer first choice, but may play his way back into the team.
Yorke: Star of '99 - fifth choice now, would be sold if there were a buyer.

Suspended for the final was Keane, who was and is an automatic choice, and Scholes who wasn't always picked then but is an automatic for club and country now.

The only problem with the 'Ferguson not to retire' theory is that the only real area of weakness is United's defence. Either Ferguson has decided that Stam was a weak link whose removal will provide a catalyst or as is more likely from the quotes in the weekends press, there is a replacement lined up.

Stam's replacement will determine United's place in European soccer for the next few years. If it is Blanc, then good player that he was, United are at the top of the mountain and will start falling. But if it is Cannavaro, Hofland, Ayala or Kuffour then perhaps Ferguson has done it again and will stay on a couple of years to win a second European cup and eclipse his rivals as the greatest ever British manager.

9 England vs Germany, who MUST S

8 Relegation fodder, St Nightmar

15. Newcastle United

Bobby Robson's enthusiasm will be tested to the limit this season. An expensive winger and a free from Bolton aren't the most inspiring signings ever made. Newcastle need wholesale surgery and I'm not talking about Dyer. Dyer is a star player but seems to have tired of waiting for the rebuilding to start in earnest. His fitness and retention as much as the return of Shearer will be essential to keep Newcastle clear of the drop.

16. Leicester City

With their squad being lured one by one up to Glasgow, this is a crunch season for Peter Taylor. Last season they were unbeatable until they reached the forty-point barrier and then went into freefall, Gary Lineker was right to be grateful when forty points were reached, because no one had a worse record afterwards. Ian Walker should keep Leicester up, but I think that Matt Elliott is worth 3 places to Leicester - so paying him what he thinks he's worth is a real no-brainer. Pay the man.

17. West Ham United

Glen Roeder may be a nice man but he may well be pushed back into coaching before Christmas. Divisions in the squad and the recent losses of Lampard and Ferdinand may mean disaster for the less than happy hammers. Cash is likely to be tight again and Roeder may not have a ready-made transfer network to discover bargains. For survival West Ham will need a brilliant home record.

18. Southampton

In many ways Southampton and West Ham have had a similar past few months, both have lost good managers and both have had key players tempted away, with, in Southampton's case, Kachloul and possibly Richards going. The difference between the two is that Southampton has moved from the Dell to a new stadium, which will probably never be dubbed St. Nightmary's (apart from in squarefootball towers). The atmosphere and support at the Dell has kept Southampton in the top flight on several occasions and its closure may well curtail the Saint's premiership party.

19. Bolton Wanderers

Losing Robbie Elliot on a Bosman, and with no real influx of talent, Bolton will struggle. Sam Allardyce is a very good manager who really should have been given a chance at a big club by now. His inspiration may keep Bolton off the bottom but unless he makes some inspired signings very quickly Bolton's stay in the top flight will be short.

20. Everton

Only Arsenal have been longer in the top flight, but Everton have now finished in the bottom half of the table nine seasons out of ten. Something must give sooner or later. The sale of the best young players every year (Jeffers, Ball, Barmby) and their replacement by the likes of Campbell and Gascoigne will eventually tell. This is a squad that is top heavy with 'seasoned pros' and although this is good for a relegation scrap, the legs will get heavy when the weather worsens. Without the money to buy their way out of trouble this is an accident waiting to happen.

7 Mid-table mediocrity, well the

7. Chelsea

Some great midfield acquisitions (Petit, Zenden and Lampard), a good home record and a fanatical support. But the words 'transition' and 'season' seem destined to be Chelsea's bywords for 2001/2002. This is a coming side and, as long as Ken Bates resists the urge to change managers again, will be a championship side in three to four seasons time.

8. Aston Villa

Could this be John Gregory's last hurrah? Schmeicel may be past his best but still better than James, Angel should start to pay back his fee and now that all the whingers have gone (well almost all anyway) team spirit should be better. A good cup run and a solid league position are likely.

9. Charlton Athletic

A good campaign last time that has been built on with the full time arrival of Bartlett and the capture of the talented Euell. This Charlton side may be the surprise package of the season, and with a bit of luck on the injury front may yet get a UEFA spot, if some of the more fancied teams stutter. A very well run team.

10. Middlesbrough

The arrival of Steve McClaren isn't the sure fire panacea that some pundits feel. For every O'Leary there's been a Kidd, Gorman or Lewington. Great coaches do not often make great managers, but you do get the feeling that this one is different. He has yet to buy big, and this is where managers make their luck. Greening and Wilson are decent players and given experience may well be international class. Southgate and Ehiogu are a fabulous pairing, but team building will negate much of the better quality coaching. Expect the revolving door that is the transfer market to be spinning very quickly at the Riverside.

11. Blackburn Rovers

Souness is an experienced manager and has made enough interesting signings to propel Blackburn to a good finish in the league. The Grabbi/Jansen link up will be crucial. Little expectation outside East Lancashire for an exciting season and mid-table mediocrity beckons. Probably much to Graeme Souness's relief.

12. Derby County

Most pundits expect Derby to go down with Bolton and one other, but getting Fab Rav could prove to be the transfer coup of the summer. A dogged management team with some good players they were dead and buried last season before a revival under the new coaching team last season moved them to safety, until complacency set in. If the club has learned lessons from last season then they should be safe by Easter.

13. Fulham

Most pundits are expecting great things of Fulham and they may well get off to a flyer, but I think they will inevitably fall away after Christmas. Saha may be this seasons Stewart (who was last seasons Phillips) and the inspired purchase of van der Sar will keep them well out of trouble. But the reality is this is a team building for the future and I think that Tigana's biggest problem for this season is suppressing expectations.

14. Ipswich Town

The morning after the night before. The distractions of Europe and the loss of a star goalkeeper and with no real replacement in sight will spell mediocrity for last season's surprise package. Marcus Stewart may well find (like Kevin Phillips) that season 2 is much more difficult. I think the nation (outside Norfolk) would be delighted if Ipswich makes progress in the UEFA cup.

6 Title challengers 2001/2002 se

Champions. Manchester United.

Ok so far, so predictable but when the best team spends the most money pre-season the only possible down-side is that the new signings will take time to settle. 22 goals in 6 pre-season games doesn't suggest that much is wrong, a great new midfielder, the new Van Basten (probably) and a good goalkeeping understudy. The best will be better for the final season of Ferguson's reign, only obsessional Champions League focus or total over-confidence can deny them.

2. Leeds United

Some may point to their lack of summer signings as a bad thing, on the contrary this can be a good thing, good team morale and the best team form of any top team in the second half of last season suggest that this is a team ready to win something. Now that O'Leary is working on a settled team that is young and hungry, I think that this season may be the best for Leeds since Howard Wilkinsons championship winning team.

3. Liverpool

Only one major purchase (Riise) and one major leaver (Ziege). Liverpool have the settled look of a major force for the next few years. Stability is usually good for short term-prospects and the squad now has the habit of winning trophies. If Liverpool had signed a world class centre-half and goalkeeper in the summer then I would have predicted a championship season. Campbell and van der Sar were available and I think that Liverpool will do well, but will regret not going the extra mile to sign them.

4. Tottenham Hotspur

I'll say that again, Tottenham Hotspur. Under the astute management of Glenn Hoddle I think Tottenham will rise quickly. The defence will tighten up and they will be difficult to beat. Glenn is a good coach and this season everyones expectations of spurs will be low, an ideal situation that I think Glennda will thrive in. The loss of Sol Campbell may well concentrate a few minds, Sheringham and Rebrov may well prove to be a revelation together.

5. Sunderland

Good home side that seems to start well but fade after Christmas. Peter Reid's side suffered when Phillips and Quinn were so often injured or out of form. Some astute signings and the removal of deadwood means this will be a lean squad, but European football awaits if the squad stays fit.

6. Arsenal

Viera stays, Campbell, van Broonkhurst, the fox in the box, various Japanese and the future England keeper all sign. How can Arsenal finish so much lower? Simple, too many players to assimilate, several players about to retire (Dixon, Seaman, Adams, Keown) and a patchy team spirit after Petit's departure. I think Arsenal are in transition and Arsene is building for the future. Besides how the god of fate (who insists certain players are relegated year after year, and that players always score against their old teams) would love to see Sol Campbell further his career with a downward jolt before the likely rise.