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Sunday, 28 September 2008

Wigan Athletic vs Manchester City: Premier League Prediction Panel 2008/9 - previews and predictions

Wigan Athletic were once more roundly backed for relegation, but has based a survival strategy based on obdurate defence (just four goals conceded is only bettered by Chelsea and Liverpool) and lightning fast breaks (as evidenced in the big away win in Hull).  On the downside it isn't a policy that is getting too many points and Wigan lie just apoint above second-bottom Newcastle.  Against City's spending Wigan will probably look to defend - even in a home game - and then see what happens on the break.

Manchester City are now the richest club in the world, so fortunately for the rest of the world the existence of a transfer window has stopped any amazing bids for the moment.  And this week City has demonstrated its usual schizophrenic nature in trouncing Portsmouth 6-0 before sharing four goals with Brighton before losing a penalty shoot-out.  If the Portsmouth game City team turn up then they must win, but if its the Brighton game team ...

City start as favourites, but the attacking will need to be incisive against an excellent defensive unit.

Wigan Athletic vs Manchester City; Kick Off 04:00pm 28 Sep 2008

Prediction Panel
Our panel contains both Squarefootball writers and readers, the writers are marked: (sqf).

Tony Bellew : 1 - 2
Dave Blackburn : 1 - 1
Sue Gardener : 2 - 2
Chris Goodwin : 1 - 3
Paul Grech (sqf) : 1 - 1
Colin Illingworth (sqf) : 2 - 3
Hugh Larkin (sqf) : TBC
Peter Lee : 1 - 2
Don McMahon : 0 - 3
Antony Melvin (sqf) : 1 - 2
Stephen Orford (sqf) : 1 - 3
Tony Ratton : 1 - 3
Peter Rendle : 0 - 2
Dan Taylor : 1 - 1
Andy Wakeman : 1 - 2
Isaac Williams : 1 - 3
Mark Williams : 1 - 1

Panel Verdict
The panel have a few backers for the draw, but the clear majority are expecting a Manchester City win.

Home: 0; Draw: 5; Away: 11; TBC: 1;

Spread Betting
Despite Wigan's exceptional defensive record the bet today looks like total goals, City seem to be involved in four or six goal thrillers every game and only three goals for the two teams will make a buy profitable.

Example: 20pts buy Total goals at 2.6
No goals: You lose 52pts
1 goal: You lose 32pts
2 goals: You lose 12pts
3 goals: You win 8pts
4 goals: You win 28pts
5 goals: You win 48pts
6 goals: You win 68pts
and so on

* Do we have it right, or do you know better?  Please don't bother with derisory comments on the predictions after the match - unless you also pulled us up before it!

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