Struggling West Ham United boss Gianfranco Zola believes that 37 points will be enough to guarantee survival this season but after a thumping defeat by Chelsea, and Arsenal next on the horizon, where will these points that the little Italian so dearly craves come from?
Traditionally forty points is the mark that every team tries to amass in order to beat the drop from the Premier League but in recent seasons this total has ranged between 34 and 38 points. Portsmouth’s slide into administration will almost certainly consign the basement boys to life in the Championship and Hull City and Burnley look destined to join them. But the Hammers are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination.
Life at the Boleyn Ground has been anything but sweet for Gianfranco Zola with a massive debt hanging over the club and injuries to key players playing havoc with results on the field. However, everyone believes that the Hammers will have enough about them to retain their Premier League status, but talk is cheap – Zola needs his players to do their talking on the pitch and fast.
West Ham have managed to win just two of their past 11 league and cup fixtures and find themselves perilously close to the drop zone. In fact if the Hammers lose to Arsenal at the Emirates on Saturday and Hull City or Burnley end their away day blues at Portsmouth and Wigan respectively, West Ham United will be in real danger.
Ten points is what the gaffer is after but where will they come from? The Hammers have nine games to save themselves this season starting with a trip to north London on Saturday and not even the most optimistic fan can see them derailing Arsenal’s title hopes. The Hammers have only lost at the Emirates once in their past four visits but you’d have to fancy the stubborn Gunners to keep the pressure on Chelsea and Manchester United. Points: Zero.
Once Arsenal is out of the way West Ham host a crucial double header against fellow strugglers Wolves and the ever determined Potters of Stoke City. The Hammers defeated Mick McCarthy’s men on the opening day of the season at Molineux – which remains the only away win for Zola this season in the league – and haven’t lost at home to Wolves in 32 years. But Wolves have proved to be a lot harder to beat in recent outings and will be keen to leave the capital with a share of the points at least. Points: At least one.
Stoke City beat the Irons for the first time in six attempts earlier this season but their record at Upton Park is sketchy to say the least. They have left the East End with maximum points only once in the past 36 years and have managed just two away victories this season, but the Potters are always hard to play against and you must fight to get anything from them. Points: At least one.
April sees the Hammers travel to Merseyside to face a team they haven’t beaten in their past six clashes. Goodison Park is notoriously a difficult ground to visit and the Irons will be looking to record only their third win there in 27 years. Everton have overcome their poor start to the season and David Moyes will want his players to finish on a high. Points: Zero.
They then face Steve Bruce’s Sunderland. The Black Cats look to have turned the corner following their 4-0 drubbing of Bolton Wanderers but Zola should feel comfortable welcoming them to the East End. The Wearsiders have amassed only seven points on their travels this season and have lost their last three visits to the Boleyn. Points: Three.
Zola then faces another to visit to Merseyside, this time to take on Liverpool. The Anfield giants have been a shadow of their former selves and are in real danger of losing their grip on fourth place. However, Anfield has not been a happy hunting ground for West Ham. Their last win there was back in 1963 and last season’s goalless draw was their first point at Anfield in a decade. But if Zola has a full squad to choose from and Liverpool are without a few of their senior players anything could happen. Points: One.
West Ham then entertain Wigan Athletic, who themselves are in danger of slipping through the trap door. Meetings between the two sides have been scarce but the Lactics have left the Boleyn with maximum points in three of their past five visits and you can never be sure what Roberto Martinez’s men will produce. Points: At least one.
The Hammers’ penultimate game is away at Fulham – a ground where they haven’t lost in the league since 1966 – before hosting Champions League hopefuls Manchester City on the final day. Points from the two games: Four.
By my calculations that will be 11 points for the Hammers, two more than Zola expects, and will put them on 38 points which should ensure their Premier League survival. It’s ultimately in their own hands but looking at those fixtures they are going to have to do it the hard way. There are a number of winnable games but they must start picking up points on the road if they are to beat the drop again.
Wolves, Stoke and Sunderland are three massive games for the Hammers and if they can win those then they should be able to enjoy the final few games of the season. If they lose them, it could be curtains for Zola and the Hammers as we know them.
Personally, I think (and hope) the Hammers will find some form and beat the drop, and they deserve to do so. They like to play football on the deck, have a loyal fan base and Zola warrants another season to show what he can do in the top flight. It will be tough and there will be plenty of ups and downs but that’s part of the course being a West Ham fan isn’t it? Just as long as they stay up.
· Calling all West Ham fans. Where do you think the points will come from to keep you up this season? How confident are you of beating the drop? Do you think you may need more than 10 points to stay up? Is Zola the right man for the Hammers? Whatever your views, I’d love to hear from you.