As the English season finishes with Chelsea as League and Cup double winners, Manchester United left with the consolation of the League Cup and League runners-up we can look at the prediction panel's success over the past season. All the pundits mentioned below predicted at least 250 league games to derive these accuracy percentages - and weren't allowed to pick and choose during individual weeks which games looked more predictable.
On average the least predictable team this season was Everton, last season it was Tottenham; although both may well expect to be threatening 70 points next season. The most predictable teams are generally the very good or very bad ones, and for the past two seasons the Champion team has been the most predictable (especially as they generally win about 70% of their games).
We are looking for some new pundits for next season, as we have lost some panelists and we look to have at least one panelist from each club to provide some balance. Get in touch if you are interested - especially fans of Villa, Birmingham, Blackburn, Chelsea, Fulham, Man City, Wigan and Blackpool or Cardiff - and I'll let you know the score.
Correct Results, 2009/10 Season
The big competition saw Chris Cox as clearly the best pundit a clear 3% ahead of fast finishing Squarefootball Editor, Antony Melvin, who was the best pundit on the final weekend picking 8 out of the 10 results correctly. Last year's winner Dave Blackburn was pushed into third place. The pre-season target of an average of 50% of results being picked correctly was missed by 1%.
% Pundit
54 Chris Cox
51 Antony Melvin (sqF)
51 Dave Blackburn
51 Peter Lee
50 Dave Nash
50 Andy Wakeman
49 Peter Rendle
49 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
48 Mark Williams
48 Graham Enwright
48 Dan Taylor
47 Don McMahon
47 Tony Ratton
45 Sue Gardener
45 Colin Illingworth (sqF)
44 Chris Goodwin
Correct Scores, 2009/10 Season
Liverpool fan Mark Williams just outdid Manchester United pundit Peter Lee to pick the most correct scores each week, with Squarefootball editor, Antony Melvin in third. The pre-season target of more than 10% of scores to be correctly picked was exceeded by the regular pundits.
% Pundit
13 Mark Williams
12 Peter Lee
12 Antony Melvin (sqF)
11 Dave Blackburn
11 Peter Rendle
10 Dan Taylor
10 Tony Ratton
10 Dave Nash
10 Andy Wakeman
9 Chris Cox
9 Don McMahon
9 Sue Gardener
8 Graham Enwright
8 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
8 Colin Illingworth (sqF)
7 Chris Goodwin
Top pundits by team (this season)
Chris Cox confirmed his top pundit status by being the most accurate predictor of 7 teams - 3 of them with over 70% accuracy; Squarefootball's Hugh Larkin was the best for three teams.
7 Chris Cox (Arsenal, Bolton Wanderers, Burnley, Fulham, Manchester United, Portsmouth, Tottenham Hotspur)
3 Hugh Larkin (Chelsea, Liverpool, Stoke City)
2 Antony Melvin (Birmingham City, Blackburn Rovers)
2 Mark Williams (Everton, West Ham United)
2 Peter Rendle (Hull City, Wigan Athletic)
1 Tony Ratton (Aston Villa)
1 Dave Nash (Manchester City)
1 Colin Illingworth (Sunderland)
1 Don McMahon (Wolverhampton Wanderers)
70% accuracy pundits
Three pundits picked over 70% of the results for certain teams correctly over the course of the season.
3 Chris Cox (Arsenal, Manchester United, Portsmouth)
2 Hugh Larkin (Chelsea, Liverpool)
1 Dave Nash (Chelsea)
Insider Knowledge
As usual no-one predicted the team that they support as accurately as supporters of other teams! So three honourable mentions for predicting results far better than anyone else for certain clubs. Peter Rendle picked 59% of Aston Villa's results (second place was 50%); Mark Williams picked 65% of West Ham's results (54% was second) and the biggest spread of all, Hugh Larkin picked 68% of Stoke's results fully 12% clear of any other pundit.
Arsenal
With a stack of home wins every pundit picked 50-70% of Arsenal's results - but some unexpected away performances didn't help.
% Name
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70 Chris Cox
68 Graham Enwright
68 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
66 Andy Wakeman
62 Dave Blackburn
Aston Villa
Tricky team to predict and only one regular pundit picked the results of more than half the games correctly.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
59 Tony Ratton
50 Peter Lee
46 Chris Cox
46 Dave Nash
46 Mark Williams
Birmingham City
Tipped by many to struggle, Birmingham were relatively simple to predict as they tended to go on long runs of form.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
66 Antony Melvin (sqF)
62 Dave Nash
60 Mark Williams
52 Peter Lee
48 Dave Blackburn
Blackburn Rovers
A good season for Blackburn who reasonably predictably won at home and lost away, although some big name scalps cost some pundits.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
62 Antony Melvin (sqF)
56 Chris Cox
55 Peter Rendle
55 Tony Ratton
51 Andy Wakeman
Bolton Wanderers
Bolton were struggling for a long time this season, but the upturn after Owen Coyle's arrival was accurately anticipated by the panel.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
58 Chris Cox
58 Antony Melvin (sqF)
57 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
54 Dan Taylor
54 Dave Blackburn
Burnley
Burnley started well and then went into freefall - and as such were largely predictable.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
68 Chris Cox
65 Don McMahon
61 Tony Ratton
60 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
59 Mark Williams
Chelsea
Hugh Larkin and Dave Nash were the best pundit on the champions, exceeding the 'back them to win every game' tactic of many people.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
76 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
72 Dave Nash
69 Andy Wakeman
65 Graham Enwright
64 Dave Blackburn
Everton
Only Liverpool fan, Mark Williams, was able to work out half of Everton's results in a season dogged by injuries.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
50 Mark Williams
45 Dave Blackburn
42 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
41 Andy Wakeman
40 Colin Illingworth (sqF)
Fulham
Chris Cox was the top pundit for the Europa League finalists, who proved tricky when unexpectedly winning games straight after long journeys.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
62 Chris Cox
57 Antony Melvin (sqF)
55 Dave Nash
52 Dave Blackburn
51 Andy Wakeman
Hull City
Relegated Hull were often better than many pundits expected - the final day draw with Liverpool being an example.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
60 Peter Rendle
57 Graham Enwright
51 Andy Wakeman
51 Dan Taylor
51 Tony Ratton
Liverpool
A dreadful season for Liverpool made them tough to pick, so 70% accuracy from Hugh Larkin was impressive.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
70 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
63 Chris Cox
60 Peter Lee
57 Dave Blackburn
57 Dave Nash
Manchester City
The richest club does not yet have a team worthy of the price tag, which fooled a lot of pundits along the way - next season will surely feature more consistent winning form.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
60 Dave Nash
55 Peter Lee
51 Antony Melvin (sqF)
50 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
50 Peter Rendle
Manchester United
With 70% of games won this season, most pundits would have been better served ignoring any other factor.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
73 Chris Cox
69 Dave Blackburn
66 Don McMahon
65 Graham Enwright
65 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
Portsmouth
Another win for Chris Cox picking 70% of the results of doomed Pompey.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
70 Chris Cox
66 Dave Blackburn
66 Don McMahon
66 Peter Lee
64 Antony Melvin (sqF)
Stoke City
Stoke defied second season syndrome, despite patchier late season form - never an easy side to back with certainty except at home.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
68 Hugh Larkin (sqF)
56 Tony Ratton
55 Andy Wakeman
54 Dave Blackburn
53 Chris Cox
Sunderland
Sunderland's season was a bad souffle, crispy on the edges and soggy in the middle - Squarefootball's Colin Illingworth was the only pundit who picked them consistently well.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
59 Colin Illingworth (sqF)
54 Peter Rendle
51 Sue Gardener
47 Andy Wakeman
45 Dave Blackburn
Tottenham Hotspur
The usually unpredictable Spurs are being made boringly accurate by Harry Redknapp, our panel has not quite picked up on this trend yet.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
61 Chris Cox
58 Graham Enwright
55 Antony Melvin (sqF)
52 Peter Lee
51 Dave Nash
West Ham United
West Ham skirted the danger zones of football and finance with very little to spare this season; Mark Williams being the stand-out predictor.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
65 Mark Williams
54 Chris Cox
54 Dave Blackburn
52 Peter Lee
51 Antony Melvin (sqF)
Wigan Athletic
Wigan seemed incapable of stringing results together - either good or bad - so it surprised me that any pundits got over 50% accuracy on their results.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
57 Peter Rendle
53 Chris Cox
52 Don McMahon
51 Antony Melvin (sqF)
51 Colin Illingworth (sqF)
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves ran Everton close as the least predictable team - only two pundits got their results even half right.
% Name
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------
50 Don McMahon
50 Graham Enwright
45 Peter Lee
44 Dan Taylor
43 Colin Illingworth (sqF)
Any thoughts on how to improve the panel for next season, more obvious club loyalties, more analysis, more pundits? Let us know!